Sonali Huria
Research Officer, IPCS
e-mail: sonali@ipcs.org
Bangladesh, Cambodia and the Maldives recently signed an agreement with the European Union (EU), which is aimed at assisting developing countries, particularly Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in Asia to battle the onslaught of climate change. As per the agreement, the EU will provide 13.5 million Euros to the three countries, of which the biggest chunk, 8.5 million, will be granted to Bangladesh with the remaining amount being distributed among the other two. The joint declaration was adopted in Dhaka on 31 May at the conclusion of the two-day Asia Regional Conference of Global Climate Change Alliance, which is an initiative on climate change of the European Commission in collaboration with least developed countries (LDCs) that are likely to be the most-severely impacted by climate change. Bangladesh has been ranked by the Global Climate Risk Index 2010 as the most vulnerable country to extreme weather events owing to global climate change.
While Bangladesh is no stranger to natural disasters, environmentalists believe that in the last decade or so, it has shown itself to be particularly susceptible to climate change-induced floods, cyclones and tornadoes which have taken a heavy toll on human life, infrastructure and livestock and inundated its fertile land with brackish sea water, making these lands unfit for agricultural use. The 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that by 2050, the country's agricultural produce will decrease sharply, with wheat and rice production expected to fall by 30 and 10 per cent respectively.
According to the US magazine, Scientific American, more climate migrants will come from Bangladesh in the near future than any other country; by 2050 "about 15 million people in Bangladesh alone could be displaced," especially those who reside along its coastline and the country's smaller low-lying islands. There is growing concern about how this bulk of people will be accommodated in the country's mainland which is regarded the most densely populated in the world, in the event that these islands get swamped by rising sea levels. It is a concern that hasn't escaped India's attention either, which worried about 'illegal' migration from Bangladesh, is already in the process of completing the fencing of about 2100 miles of its border with its neighbouring country.
Caught in the maelstrom of climate change, how is Bangladesh coping with these challenges? Writing about the adaptive options available to Bangladesh to deal with climate change, Anwar Ali, in a journal article titled Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment in Bangladesh suggests that there are only three - retreat, accommodation and protection. Given the scarcity of land which is a reality in Bangladesh and made more acute due to high population density and future population growth estimates, 'retreat' is not much of an option. Bangladesh can and has thus, been working around the other two.
Since the devastating Bhola cyclone in 1970, Bangladesh has undertaken a comprehensive programme to enhance its disaster preparedness. In the aftermath of the 2008 Sidr cyclone, Bangladesh undertook to build two thousand cyclone shelters, in addition to the already existing shelters, particularly in densely populated coastal areas. It is working on improving its early warning and forecasting systems, which are useful not only in helping evacuate people from coastal regions in the likely event of a cyclone, but also valuable in assisting farmers plan their cropping schedule in accordance with the expected yearly or seasonal rain patterns. Further, according to news reports, agricultural research centers in Bangladesh are also trying to develop newer varieties of rice that will be resistant to higher water salinity and temperatures. The Bangladesh government, in an effort to address the problem of land inundation has already built a network of polders and dykes along the entire stretch of the country's coast - a "literal fortification," according to The Independent, in the country's "battle to survive climate change."
Despite these measures it seems unlikely that Bangladesh can escape certain inevitable consequences of climate change. The Sunderbans forest, for instance, which provides crucial resistance against the encroachment of Bangladeshi territory by rising sea waters, is itself under threat. According to Md. Mizanur Rahman, a biodiversity specialist, the Sunderbans delta is a "transitional zone between freshwater supplied by rivers and saline water pushed by the Bay of Bengal." Increasing sea water levels and rising salinity however, have led to greater tree mortality in the Sunderbans, causing irrevocable damage to this first line of defence against land inundation.
The Sixteenth SAARC Summit held in April this year clearly demonstrated Bangladesh's anxiety and seriousness about grappling with a problem which in the years to come is likely to take on more serious proportions. While there is greater recognition within the country and region of the imminent challenges that climate change poses, there is little that can be achieved in the absence of global efforts to curtail carbon emissions and embark on a development course that is just, equitable and sustainable.